中国的初婚前同居状况及其对婚育轨迹的影响

Premarital Cohabitation in China and Its Impacts on Marriage and Fertility Trajectories

利用2016年中国家庭追踪调查数据,借助生存分析方法研究中国初婚前同居模式及其对个体婚姻和生育行为的影响。结果显示,虽然初婚前同居较快转变为初婚,但仍起到婚姻推迟作用,且对男性影响更大。在利用倾向值匹配控制选择性后,初婚前同居依旧推迟男性初婚,但对女性的影响变得不再显著。随着出生队列的推移,初婚前同居的婚姻进度效应发生了大小和方向上的变化,体现了初婚前同居影响的异质性。虽然婚姻和生育依旧联系密切,但有过初婚前同居经历的女性初婚初育间隔更大,并且不会因为晚婚而加快生育进度。这些结论反映了中国婚姻家庭领域现代性和传统性并存的特点,能为第二次人口转变背景下中国婚姻家庭领域公共政策的完善提供参考信息。

Drawing on data from 2016 China Family Panel Studies, this paper uses survival analysis to examine premarital cohabitation and its impacts on marriage and childbearing behaviors. The results indicate:(1) Despite a quick transition into marital union, premarital cohabitation has a postponement effect on first marriage, which influences males to a larger extent. After controlling for selectivity by propensity score matching, premarital cohabitation no longer delays women’s marriage but still affects that of men. Over cohorts, the impacts of premarital cohabitation on marriage change in magnitude and direction, reflecting its heterogeneity.(2) Although marriage and childbearing are still closely related, women who have cohabited premaritally tend to prolong their transition into motherhood. Despite a squeezing effect of marriage delay on fertility timing, premarital cohabitators are not affected. These findings not only suggest that China’s family systems are characterized by a combination of modernity and traditionality, but also have implications for public policies in the realm of marriage and childbearing during the Second Demographic Transition.