鄂北地区水资源配置工程洪水预报系统建设与应用

Construction and application of flood forecast system for North Hubei Water Transfer Project

洪水调度预报是防洪保障体系中的一项重要的非工程措施。为提高洪水预报的精度、缩短预见期,为水库的安全运行和水资源优化配置提供决策依据,建立了鄂北地区水资源配置工程洪水预报系统。通过建立封江口水库和王家冲水库洪水预报经验方案和数学预报模型,输入各类实时信息,启动预报模型方案,对洪峰水位(流量)、洪水过程及洪量等洪水要素进行了实时预报。检验结果表明,预报方案和流域模型有效提高了预报精度,可为鄂北地区水资源配置工程运行调度提供决策依据。

Flood forecast is an important non-structure measure of flood control system.To improve forecast accuracy,shorten the forecasting period and provide decision-making tool for the safe operation of the reservoirs and to optimize water resources allocation,we constructed flood forecast system for the North Hubei Water Transfer Project.By formulating flood forecasting scheme and the mathematical forecasting model for Fengjiangkou Reservoir and Wangjiachong Reservoir,real-time forecast of the flood peak water level(discharge),flood process and volume can realized by entering real-time information from various sources and initiating the scheme.The results showed that the flood forecasting scheme and model can effectively improve forecasting accuracy,and provide decision-making basis for operation and regulation of the North Hubei Water Transfer Project.