房价上涨恶化了制造业企业的生存环境吗?

Do increasing house prices deteriorate the environment of manufacturing enterprises?

基于2000—2013年中国城市数据与工业企业微观数据的合并数据集,考察了房价上涨对我国制造业企业生存的影响效应、作用机制及其异质性表现。研究发现:(1)城市房价上涨对企业生存造成了显著的负向影响,实际房价上涨1%,企业的生存风险将上升约0.13%;房价的增速越快,企业的生存风险越高,房价增速提高1%,企业的生存风险将增加约0.17%。(2)房价上涨引致的成本效应和挤出效应是影响企业生存的两个重要渠道:一方面,房价上涨导致劳动力成本和企业用地成本增加;另一方面,房价上涨造成了制造业企业劳动力流出,同时挤出了企业的研发创新投入。(3)房价上涨对企业生存的影响具有普遍性,但对民营和外资企业的影响更大,对国有企业的影响则相对较小;在一二线城市、劳动密集型以及与房地产关联度较低的行业中,企业生存受房价上涨的影响更大。此外,2003年的住房和土地供给制度改革,以及应对2008年经济危机的宽松财政和货币政策,在刺激房价持续快速上涨的同时进一步加剧了制造业企业的生存风险。最后,拓展研究表明,房价上涨会通过影响微观企业的生产经营,对我国当前国内经济大循环产生不利影响。研究结论为当前稳房价的宏观经济政策提供了经验证据与决策参考。

Based on the combined dataset of Chinese urban data and industrial enterprise micro data from 2000 to 2013,this paper investigates the effect,mechanism,and heterogeneous performance of increasing house prices on the survival of China’s manufacturing enterprises.The results are as follows.(1)The rise in urban housing prices has a significant negative impact on the survival of enterprises,the real house price rises by 1%,the enterprise’s survival risk will rise by about 0.13%,and the faster the rise in house prices,the higher the survival risk of enterprises,the growth rate of house prices increases by 1%,the enterprises survival risk will rise by about 0.17%.(2)The cost effects and crowding-out effects caused by rising house prices are two important channels that affect the survival of enterprises:on the one hand,rising housing prices have led to an increase in labor costs and land costs;on the other hand,rising housing prices have caused labor outflows from manufacturing companies and squeezed out companies’R&D and innovation inputs.(3)The impact of rising house prices on the survival of enterprises is universal.It has a greater impact on the survival of private and foreign-funded enterprises,and a relatively smaller impact on state-owned enterprises.The market survival of companies in first-and second-tier cities,labor-intensive industries,and industries that are less connected to real estate is more affected by housing prices.In addition,the reform of the housing and land supply system in 2003,and the loose fiscal and monetary policies to deal with the economic crisis of 2008,while stimulating the continued rapid rise in housing prices,further aggravated the survival risks of manufacturing companies.Further research shows that rising housing prices will adversely affect the domestic economic cycle by affecting the production and operation of micro-enterprises.The conclusions provide empirical evidence and decision-making reference for the current macroeconomic policies to stabilize housing prices.