染病动物传染项的疫病动力学模型分析

Dynamic Analysis of Epidemic of Infected Animals with Infectious Items

基于已有的研究,考虑潜伏期时滞和已发现的染病动物仍传染,建立一个新的疫病传播动力学模型。首先计算模型的基本再生数R0,分析地方病平衡点的存在性;然后对模型平衡点的稳定性进行分析,发现检测出的染病动物如果不再传染,模型的平衡点是稳定的;最后通过数值模拟发现,当已发现的染病动物仍传染时,模型会出现周期震荡,这会显著影响动物疫病防控措施的制定。

A new dynamic model of transmission for epidemic disease was established based on the existing studies,considering the latent delay and the infectiousness of infected animals having been found.The existence of endemic equilibrium points needed to be confirmed according to the basic reproduction number R0 calculated by the model first and then the stability of equilibrium points was analyzed.It was found that the equilibrium point of the model was stable when the infected animals were no longer infectious.The numerical simulation indicated that if the infected animals were still infectious,the model would show periodical oscillation of the equilibrium point,which affected significantly the formulation of measures for animal epidemic prevention and control.