清远市森林覆盖率的影响因素分析与模型预测

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Model Prediction of Forest Coverage in Qingyuan City

以《清远统计年鉴(2012—2017)》森林覆盖率及其相关数据为基础,采用灰色关联分析方法,对影响清远市森林覆盖率的影响因素进行关联分析,并用GM(1,1)模型对清远市森林覆盖率的发展趋势进行了预测。结果表明:对清远森林覆盖率影响最大的因素是年平均气温,其次是年降水量、年日照时数和地区生产总值;通过模型可预测出清远的中长期森林覆盖率值,分析森林覆盖率影响因素、预测森林覆盖率能为清远合理利用森林资源提供参考。

Based on the forest coverage rate and related data in Qingyuan Statistical Yearbook(2012-2017),the gray correlation analysis method was used to analyze the influencing factors affecting the forest coverage rate of Qingyuan City,and the development trend of forest coverage rate in Qingyuan City was predicted by using GM(1,1)model.The results show that the most important factor affecting Qingyuan′s forest coverage is the annual average temperature,followed by annual precipitation,annual sunshine hours and regional GDP.The model can be used to predict the mid-to-long-term forest coverage of Qingyuan.Analyze the influencing factors of forest coverage rate and predict the forest coverage rate,which can provide reference for the rational utilization of forest resources in Qingyuan.