新型冠状病毒肺炎发病率空间特征及影响因素

Spatial Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Incidence of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia(COVID-19)

针对2020年初在武汉市爆发的新型冠状病毒肺炎,基于空间自相关分析方法探究了新型冠状病毒肺炎发病率的空间特征,利用地理加权回归模型与统计学中的离差检验方法定量分析了空间距离、铁路路网密度、运客率与单位人均床位数4类影响因素对新型冠状病毒肺炎发病率的影响。结果表明:(1)新型冠状病毒肺炎发病率在地级市尺度上具有明显的空间集聚特征,发病率的集聚程度也随时间不断弱化;(2)不同的影响因素对发病率影响的显著程度不同,空间距离、运客率、单位人均床位数与发病率的空间分布关联性较强,铁路路网密度对发病率的影响较不显著;(3)运客率、单位人均床位数对新型冠状病毒肺炎发病率整体呈现不同程度的正向促进作用,空间距离对新型冠状病毒肺炎发病率则为负向主导作用。

For the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan in early 2020,spatial characteristics of COVID-19 incidence were investigated based on spatial autocorrelation analysis.Geographically weighted regression models and statistical methods are applied to quantitatively analyze the impact of four types of influencing factors including spatial distance,railway network density,passenger rate and number of beds per capita on the incidence of 2019 coronavirus pneumonia.The result show:(1)The incidence of 2019 coronavirus pneumonia has obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics at the prefecture-level city scale,and the concentration of incidence has gradually weakened over time;(2)Different influencing factors have different effects on the incidence rate.The spatial distribution of the incidence rate was strongly correlated with the spatial distance,the passenger transport rate,and the number of beds per capita,but the influence of the railway network density on the incidence rate was not significant;(3)The passenger rate and the number of beds per capita have positive effects on the overall incidence of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia to varying degrees,and spatial distance has a negative leading role in the incidence of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia.