边境省区入境旅游效率评价及其影响因素——基于DEA-Malmquist指数和面板Tobit模型

Efficiency evaluation and influencing factors of inbound tourism in border provinces:based on DEA-Malmquist index and Panel Tobit model

以9个陆地边境省区和海南省为研究对象,从静态、动态两个维度,运用DEA-Malmquist指数法对2010—2017年我国边境省区入境旅游效率进行评价,并借助面板Tobit模型分析其影响因素。结果表明:1)2010—2017年我国边境省区入境旅游综合效率整体偏低,纯技术效率和规模效率处于中等水平,边境各省区存在明显的异质性;2)全要素生产率变化处于"U型"缓慢上升阶段,规模低效是边境入境旅游效率增长的主要阻碍;3)Tobit回归结果显示,交通发展对边境省区入境旅游效率存在显著的"U型"关系,旅游管理水平和文化建设水平对其产生较为显著的正向影响,产业环境对其产生一定的负向影响,而对外依存度对其影响不显著;4)边境省区应综合平衡和多方面比较,充分结合自身区位、客源市场和生产效率等特点,合理优化资源配置,加快交通技术进步,打响民族文化品牌等,以期实现入境旅游效益最大化,助力经济振兴、脱贫致富和区域入境旅游可持续协调发展。

From the static and dynamic dimensions,the DEA-Malmquist index method was used to evaluate the efficiency of inbound tourism in 10 border provinces and regions from 2010 to 2017.Influential factors were analyzed by the panel Tobit model.There are following main conclusions and suggestions.(1)The overall efficiency of inbound tourism in border regions from 2010 to 2017 was slow.The pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency present a medium level,and there is an obvious heterogeneity in the border regions.(2)The total factor productivity change is U-type,a slowly rising stage.Slow scale efficiency is the main obstacle to the growth of border inbound tourism efficiency.(3)Tobit regression result shows that the traffic development had an inverted U impact on border inbound tourism efficiency.The level of tourism management and cultural construction had positive impact on it,contrary to industrial environment.(4)Border regions should be comprehensively balanced and compared with their location,source market and production efficiency and other characteristics,so as to maximize the benefits of inbound tourism,to realize economic revitalization in poverty alleviation and prosperity,and in sustainable development of regional inbound tourism.