学习分析视域下学习预测研究的发展图景

The Development Prospect of Learning Prediction Research from the Perspective of Learning Analytics

学习预测是教育领域的新兴主题,致力于为学习者提供有效的个性化学习服务、提升在线学习效果。为厘清国内学习预测研究的发展图景,文章首先以2016~2019年教育技术领域的8种中文核心期刊为文献来源,选取25篇论文作为研究样本,编制了学习预测研究编码表。接着,文章从预测对象、学习情境、学习者和预测模型四个维度对样本论文进行了量化分析。随后,文章阐释了学习预测研究具有的风险识别、数据理解和过程诊断三重效用。最后,文章从预测对象、预测模型、预测指标、预测旨趣四个维度,指出了学习预测研究的未来发展方向,旨在解决学习预测面临的现实难题,进一步推动其在学习分析领域的发展与应用。

Learning prediction is an emerging topic in the field of education,which is committed to providing effective personalized learning services for learners and improving online learning effect.In order to clarify the development prospect of learning prediction research in China,this paper firstly took 8 kinds of Chinese core journals in the field of educational technology from 2016 to 2019 as document sources,selected 25 papers as research samples,and formulated the coding table of learning prediction research.Secondly,these sample papers were analyzed quantitatively from four dimensions of prediction object,learning context,learner and prediction model.Subsequently,it was explained that the learning prediction research had three kinds of effects as risk identification,data understanding and process diagnosis.Finally,the future development direction of learning prediction research was pointed out from four dimensions of prediction object,prediction model,prediction indicator and prediction intention,in order to solve the practical problems faced by learning prediction and promote the development and application of learning prediction in learning analytics field.