情绪预测偏差的成因及干预

On the causes and interventions of affective forecasting bias

情绪预测偏差是一种对未来事件发生时情绪反应的预测和实际体验之间的分离现象。梳理该领域最近10年(2009~2019年)研究文献可知,热点研究主题涉及偏差的现象、成因和干预,相应呈现为三点主要发现:情绪预测偏差十分普遍,情绪预测偏差成因多源,情绪预测偏差可以干预。未来研究应着力关注情绪预测偏差的发生模式和心理机制,着力揭示具体偏差的神经心理机制,并从进化和文化视角综合考察偏差的发生机制。

Affective forecasting bias is a type of separation phenomenon between affective forecasting and affective experience.According to the literature from the past decade(2009~2019),the popular research topics involve bias phenomena,causes,and interventions.Accordingly,three main findings are presented:Affective forecasting bias is very common,the causes of bias are extensive,and interventions can be conducted.Future research should especially focus on revealing the mechanism of affective forecasting bias,such as the psychological mechanism of specific biases and neuropsychological mechanism of biases and its evolutionary and cultural mechanisms.