基于BRIAM模型的“一带一路”国家低碳能源发展情景研究

Scenarios study on the‘Belt and Road’countries low carbon energy development based on the BRIAM Model

针对“一带一路”应对气候变化国际合作中的长期问题决策支撑和研究需要,作者基于自主开发的“一带一路”综合评估模型(BRIAM)和最新可得数据,对“一带一路”国家自主贡献的实施及在《巴黎协定》温升2℃目标下低碳能源发展进行了情景分析和展望。研究结果表明,通过实施国家自主贡献,“一带一路”国家到2030年预期每年可减排32亿t左右的CO 2,但要最终实现全球2℃温升目标,如果没有公平合理的分配方案或额外的资金、技术和能力支持,“一带一路”国家将面临较为严峻的挑战。“一带一路”国家的非化石能源在一次能源消费中的占比需要从2015年的约12.2%提升至2030年的21%以上、2050年的46%以上,同时碳捕获和封存技术(CCS)在化石能源中的使用比例将达到41%左右。到21世纪末,“一带一路”能源供给部门的总投资变化并不大,但投资结构发生了显著的变化,在低碳能源及其配套新型基础设施领域的绿色投资占比大大提高,累计投资将超过100万亿美元。化石能源领域的累计投资从BAU情景下的约71万亿美元分别急剧下降至NDC情景下的60万亿美元和2℃情景下的28万亿美元左右。此外,碳价格的变化还会对“一带一路”国家的电力、运输等要素价格产生影响。在逆全球化的挑战下,积极推动“一带一路”应对气候变化国际合作和低碳能源基础设施建设,是充分展现中国在全球气候治理中负责任的大国形象和推动构建人类命运共同体的重要举措,并将引领各方在绿色技术、绿色贸易、绿色产能和绿色金融等领域的发展与合作,共享低碳发展的绿色效益。

In order to meet the needs of decision-making and quantitative research on medium-and long-term climate change issues in international cooperation of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),this paper attempts to assess low carbon energy development in the BRI countries during the implementation of National Determined Contributions(NDCs)and long term strategy under the Paris Agreement to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃above pre-industrial levels,on the basis of the Belt and Road Integrated Assessment Model(BRIAM)and the best available data.The results show that the BRI countries are expected to collectively reduce about 3.2 billion tons of CO 2 emissions with the implementation of their NDCs by 2030.In order to achieve the global goal of 2℃,without appropriate mitigation burden sharing and enhanced climate finance support from the rest of the world,the BRI countries will face big challenges to bridge the emission gaps.The share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption in the BRI countries should be significantly increased from about 12.2%in 2015 to above 21%in 2030 and 46%in 2050.In the meantime,the proportion of carbon capture and storage(CCS)applied in fossil fuel use will reach about 41%in 2050.The gross investment in energy supply by the end of the century is projected to vary slightly,but the investment makeup in the BRI countries will shift markedly from traditional fossil fuels towards the greener sectors.The cumulative investment in fossil fuel will drop dramatically from about US$71 trillion in the BAU Scenario to about US$60 trillion in the NDC Scenario and US$28 trillion in the 2℃Scenario respectively,while the total investment in clean energy and related new infrastructure will increase to above US$100 trillion.In addition,the rise in carbon price in the BRI countries will also eventually have impact on the price of electricity and oversea freight transport.Faced with challenges in the complicated and ever-changing international environment,the BRI countries are simultaneously going through green and low-carbon transition in an unprecedentedly scale,which will further substantiate the pragmatic cooperation of BRI countries on green technology,green trade,green capacity and green finance,to share the green benefits of low emission development,and build the community with a shared climate neutral future.