易地扶贫搬迁对贫困户生计资本和生计策略的影响——基于8省16县的3期微观数据分析

Impact of poverty alleviation relocation on livelihood capital and livelihood strategy of poor households——Analysis based on three waves of microdata from 16 counties in 8 province

坚决打赢脱贫攻坚战是党中央、国务院的一项重要战略部署,2020年是我国精准扶贫战略的验收之年。易地扶贫搬迁是精准扶贫战略的重要组成部分,该文基于可持续生计框架与空间贫困观两种理论,阐述了易地扶贫搬迁打破贫困陷阱的机理。本文利用8省16县2176户易地扶贫搬迁农户3期跟踪调查数据,通过PSM-DID、Heckman两阶段方法实证检验了易地扶贫搬迁对农户生计资本和生计策略的长期和短期影响,并采用多期DID等方法进行了稳健性检验。研究结果表明:①易地扶贫搬迁切实改善了农户的生计资本和生计策略,打破了原本由于制约性资源存量过低而无法跳出的贫困陷阱,使农户进入一个新的可持续生计循环中,即搬迁时间越长,生计资本积累越多。②易地扶贫搬迁在短期对家畜养殖有负向影响,对外出务工有正向影响;长期对农林种植有负向影响,对非农自营有正向影响。③对于搬迁后的农户而言,不同生计策略依赖于不同的生计资本。农林种植依赖于自然资本、物质资本、人力资本和金融资本,家畜养殖依赖于物质资本和社会资本,外出务工依赖于物质资本和人力资本,非农自营依赖于人力资本和金融资本。根据研究结果,提出以下政策建议:一是短期应及时稳定保证房屋基建、水电气网、交通道路设施等物质资本的供给,并根据当地产业特色提供技能培训、工作获取等帮扶措施,切实保障搬迁人口的策略转变。二是长期应持续地通过教育、医疗卫生等措施增强其文化素养和健康水平,同时提供便利的金融服务与税收优惠政策,支撑搬迁人口非农策略的可持续发展,实现长期稳定的脱贫。

Resolutely winning the battle against poverty is an important strategic deployment of CPC and the State Council.2020 is the year of acceptance of China s targeted poverty alleviation strategy,and poverty alleviation relocation is an important part of it.Based on the two theories of sustainable livelihood framework and spatial poverty concept,this paper explains the mechanism of poverty alleviation relocation to break the poverty trap.We used the PSM-DID and Heckman two-stage model to empirically test the long-term and short-term effects on farmers livelihood capital and livelihood strategies,using three-round data of 2176 farmers in 16 counties of 8 provinces.Multi-period DID and other methods were used to test the robustness of the results.The research results in this paper show that:①The poverty alleviation relocation has effectively improved the farmers’livelihood capital and livelihood strategies,breaking the poverty trap that could not be jumped out,and the longer the relocation time,the more livelihood capital accumulation.②Poverty alleviation relocation has a significant negative effect on livestock farming in the short term,and has a positive impact on migrant workers.It will significantly reduce agricultural and forestry income in the long run and increase the income of non-agricultural self-employment.③For relocated farmers,different livelihood strategies depend on different livelihood capital.Agriculture and forestry depend on natural capital,physical capital,human capital,and financial capital.Livestock farming depends on physical capital and social capital.Migrant workers depend on physical capital and human capital.Non-agricultural self-employment depends on human capital and financial capital.According to the research results,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations:In the short term,the supply of physical capital such as housing infrastructure and transportation facilities should be ensured in a timely and stable manner,and assistance measures such as skill training and job acquisition should be provided according to the characteristics of local industries,so as to ensure the strategic change of the relocated population.In the long run,education,medical care and other measures should be continuously used to enhance their cultural literacy and health.Convenient financial services and preferential tax policies should also be provided to support the sustainable development of the non-agricultural strategy of the relocated population in order to alleviate poverty in the long term.