民主稳固还是民主衰退:第三波民主化浪潮的进展与困境

Democratic Consolidation and Democratic Recession:Progresses and Setbacks of the Third Wave Democratization

亨廷顿所命名的第三波民主化浪潮展开至今已近半个世纪。近半个世纪后,这波浪潮走了多远?在卷入其中的国家中,有多少走向了民主稳固,有多少走向了民主困境?在多大程度上出现了民主衰退?又在何种意义上呈现了政体韧性?在Polity IV、Freedom House、World Value Survey等数据库的基础上,对上述问题进行实证分析后可以发现,大约一半左右的第三波案例走向了民主的阶段性稳固(在人口大国中,则为1/3),有近2/5经受了不同意义上的民主挫败(在人口大国中,则为一半左右)。就“民主衰退”现象而言,在新兴民主中,它主要不是体现在政体数量的变化上,而是体现在民主的质量退化上,即政治自由度的显著下降和“中间政体陷阱”的出现。但是,从民主观念的深入程度和历史参照系下的“民主沉淀度”而言,新兴民主又展现出相当的政体韧性。研究显示,第三波民主化浪潮的结果多样而复杂,很难以完全的乐观或悲观判断去概括。

It has been almost half a century since the Third Wave democratization started.How far has this wave gone?Among the countries involved,how many have moved towards democratic stability and how many have gone into democratic dilemma?To what extent has democracy declined?In what sense does it show the resilience of the regime?Based on the data from the Polity IV,Freedom House and World Value Survey,it is discovered that about half of the third wave cases have moved towards the stage stability of democracy(1/3 in large population countries),and nearly 2/5 have experienced democratic setbacks in different senses(about half in large population countries).As far as the phenomenon of“democratic decline”is concerned,it is mainly reflected in the quality degradation of democracy in the emerging democracy.However,in terms of the depth of democratic concept and the“democratic precipitation”under the historical reference system,the new democracy shows considerable political toughness.The analysis shows that the results of the third wave democratization are diverse and complex,and it is difficult to summarize them with optimistic or pessimistic judgment.