“全面二孩”政策下中国育龄妇女二孩生育意愿的Meta分析

Intention of having a second child among Chinese females of childbearing age based on China’s universal two-child policy:a meta-analysis

目的系统评价我国“全面二孩”政策实施后育龄妇女二孩意愿生育率,并分析其影响因素,以期为决策提供参考依据。方法计算机检索CNKI、VIP、WanFang Data、CSSCI、PubMed、EMbase和ScienceDirect数据库,搜集国内外公开发表的有关我国育龄妇女二孩生育意愿的横断面研究,检索时限均从2016年1月1日至2019年8月31日。由2位评价员独立筛选文献、提取资料并评价纳入研究的偏倚风险后,采用R软件进行Meta分析。结果共纳入15个横断面研究,包括18820例研究对象。Meta分析结果显示,我国育龄妇女二孩意愿生育率为0.42[95%CI(0.37,0.47)],逐一剔除单个研究进行敏感性分析的结果稳定性较好。亚组分析结果显示二孩生育意愿率,东部高于西部地区(0.44 vs.0.40),农村户籍高于非农村户籍(0.46 vs.0.35),18~34岁适龄妇女高于35岁以上高龄妇女(0.49 vs.0.29);无工作妇女高于有工作妇女(0.48 vs.0.40),一孩性别为女的妇女高于一孩性别为男的妇女(0.48 vs.0.39),夫妻双方均为非独生子女高于双独和单独(0.46 vs.0.41 vs.0.40)。结论我国“全面二孩”政策实施后,育龄妇女二孩意愿生育率较低,西部地区、非农村户籍、35岁以上、一孩为男孩、不是双非夫妻的育龄妇女具有更低的生育意愿。受纳入研究数量和质量限制,上述结论尚需更多高质量的研究予以验证。

Objectives To evaluate the intention of having a second child among females of childbearing age after the implementation of China’s universal two-child policy so as to provide evidence for further studies.Methods CNKI,VIP,WanFang Data,CSSCI,PubMed,EMbase and ScienceDirect databases were electronically searched to collect cross-sectional studies on the intention of females of childbearing age to have a second child from January 1st,2016 to August 31st,2019.Two reviewers independently screened literature,extracted data and assessed risk of bias of included studies.Then,meta-analysis was performed by using R software.Results A total of 15 studies involving 18820 cases were included.The results of meta-analysis showed that the fertility rate for the second child of females of childbearing age was 0.42(95%CI 0.37 to 0.47),and the result was stable.Subgroup analysis showed that the fertility rate of second child in eastern region was higher than that in western region(0.44 vs.0.40),in rural areas was higher than that in non-rural areas(0.46 vs.0.35),females aged 18 to 34 was higher than those aged above 35(0.49 vs.0.29),and nonworking females was higher than that among working females(0.48 vs.0.40).The fertility rate of the sex of the first child being female was higher than the sex of the first child was male(0.48 vs.0.39).The fertility rate of the couple who were both the non-only child was higher than the couple who were both the only child and who was only child while the other was nononly child(0.46 vs.0.41 vs.0.40).Conclusions Since the implementation of the“universal two-child policy”in China,the fertility rate of females of childbearing age with the intention of having a second child is lower,especially those females who are from the western regions and non-rural areas,aged above 35 and the sex of the first child is male and non-dualnon-couples.Due to the quantity and quality of the included studies,more high quality studies are required to verify the above conclusions in future.