基于AHP与风险矩阵模型的钨矿改扩建项目风险分析

Risk Analysis on a Reconstruction and Expansion Project of a Mine Based on AHP and Risk Matrix Mode

投资项目风险源于一系列经济要素的可变性,也源于项目实施内外环境的变化。为规避风险,在投资管理过程中,对风险进行分析是投资决策的前提和必要条件。运用层次分析法和风险矩阵法,从风险后果严重性维度构建评价体系,得出风险可能性值。以某矿山改扩建项目为实例,分析政策风险,得出环保政策风险等级很高、征地风险等级较高的结论;通过分析该项目的投资变化,发现由环保政策引起的投资增加额最多,其次为征地政策引起的投资增加额。通过风险矩阵分析与投资额变化分析,风险等级高,对投资额的影响程度就大。研究的结论可为项目投资决策在科学合理地控制投资、严格实施风险管理与监控,有效规避项目投资的重大风险等方面提供参考。

The risk of investment project comes from the uncertainty of a series of economic factors,as well as the change of internal and external environment of project implementation.In order to avoid risks,risk analysis is the premise and necessary condition of investment decision in the process of investment management.In this paper,risk matrix method and AHP are combined to construct the evaluation system from the severity dimension of risk consequences,so as to obtain the risk possibility value.Then,taking the reconstruction and expansion project of a mine as an example,the policy risks are analyzed,and conclude that the risk level of environmental protection policy is very high,and the risk level of land acquisition is high.Through the analysis of the investment change of the project,it is found that the investment increase caused by environmental protection policy is the largest,followed by the investment increase caused by land acquisition policy.Through the analysis of the risk matrix and the investment change,the higher the risk level,the greater the impact on the investment.The conclusions can provide a reference for future project investment,such as project investment decision-making,scientific and reasonable investment control,strict implementation of risk management and monitoring,and effective avoidance of major risks of project investment.