基于VAR-SSM模型的突发事件舆情圈层扩散内生影响研究

Research on Endogenous Influence of Layered Diffusion of Public Opinion in Emergency Events Based on VAR-SSM

[目的/意义]为了探索位势梯度、情感共轭与圈层扩散之间动态影响机制,对网络空间中的信息进行分类和定级,实现危机信息的差异化监控与治理。[方法/过程]本文采用向量自回归、状态空间模型及时间序列模型对位势梯度、情感共轭及圈层扩散之间关系进行分析。[结果/结论]研究发现:1)位势梯度及情感共轭的每次冲击对圈层扩散产生滞后性影响,在整个过程中呈现右偏态分布特征。2)位势梯度及情感共轭对圈层扩散波动的贡献率均较大。3)位势梯度与情感共轭对圈层扩散的边际影响变化呈倒U形抛物线特征,且均较大。4)位势梯度、情感共轭与圈层扩散之间的相互影响效应在不同人口统计学群体间存在差异。

[Purpose/Significance]In order to seek for the endogenous influence of potential gradient and emotional conjugation on layered diffusion of public opinion,monitor and govern crisis information,and enhance the intention of sharing positive information.[Method/Process]The paper used VAR model,panel data model,and state space model to analyze the relationship between potential gradient,emotional conjugation and layered diffusion.[Result/Conclusion]The research found that(1)The impact of the potential gradient and emotional conjugation was not quickly transmitted to the layered diffusion,and presents a right skew distribution characteristic throughout the process.(2)The effect of potential gradient and the emotional conjugate was greater.(3)The change of the marginal influence of potential gradient and emotional conjugation on the layered diffusion showed an inverted U-shaped parabola,and the corresponding marginal influence effects were all relatively large.(4)The interaction effects between potential gradient,emotional conjugation,and layered diffusion were different among different demographic groups.