风险感知交叉演变下突发事件网络舆情传播模型研究

Research on Network Public Opinion Propagation Model of Emergency under Cross-Evolution of Risk Perception

[目的/意义]突发事件网络舆情传播对健全舆情引导机制,推动国家治理体系和治理能力现代化具有重要意义。[方法/过程]借鉴传染病动力学模型,基于公众风险感知异质性与交叉演变性双重视角,通过剖析突发事件驱动的风险感知交叉演变机制,构建了网络舆情传播模型并求解出基本再生数。[结果/结论]“北京新发地疫情”网络舆情实证与仿真结果表明,公众风险感知异质性越小且受突发事件影响越大,网络舆情最终扩散规模及产生的影响越大。突发事件恶化将促使交叉演变向高度风险感知倾斜,加剧网络舆情传播;突发事件好转将促使交叉演变向低度风险感知倾斜,有助于控制网络舆情大规模扩散。政府面对突发事件应立即启动应急响应,降低公众风险感知水平,实现网络舆情有效干预,维护社会和谐稳定。

[Purpose/Significance]It is of great significance to study the network public opinion propagation of emergencies for improving public opinion guiding mechanism and promoting the modernization of national governance system and capacity.[Method/Process]Based on the dynamic model of infectious diseases,and the dual perspectives of heterogeneity and cross-evolution of public risk perception,this paper constructed the network public opinion propagation model by analyzing the cross-evolution mechanism of risk perception driven by emergencies.Besides,the basic reproduction number was also calculated.[Result/Conclusion]The empirical and simulation results of the network public opinion of“Beijing New Epidemic”showed that the smaller the heterogeneity of public risk perception and the greater the effect of emergencies was,the larger the scale and influence of network public opinion propagation were.The deterioration of emergencies would make the cross-evolution incline to the high risk perception,and intensify the spreading of network public opinion.However,the improvement of emergencies would promote the cross-evolution to the low risk perception,and it is helpful to control the scale of network public opinion.The government should start the emergency response immediately to reduce the level of public risk perception,realize the effective intervention of network public opinion,and maintain social harmony and stability.