考虑用户主题兴趣度的网络舆情演化建模与仿真研究

Research on the Modeling and Simulation of Network Public Opinion Evolution Considering User's Topic Interest Orientation

网络舆情是社会公众在网络空间对特定社会突发事件所产生和持有的社会政治立场与政治态度的情绪化表达。网络舆情的演化是网络舆论随时间变化趋势的反映,对网络舆情的演化过程进行研究能够探析突发事件所引发的舆情在网络环境下的发展历程及发展规律,为公共决策部门针对舆情事件实施有效监控、制定预警决策提供必要的理论支撑。本研究在传统网络舆情传播SEIR仓室模型的基础上,构建了考虑用户主题兴趣度的SEIR改进模型,通过网络舆情演化模型的建立,仿真并验证影响舆情事件演化的关键因素。结果表明,突发事件网络舆情的演化不仅与舆情传播用户的数量、舆情传播用户的地位相关,还与网络舆情参与用户的主题兴趣度、主题关注的焦点存在显著关系。在公共决策制定过程中,政府不仅要加强对网络舆情关键用户的舆论引导,还需要不断检测网络舆情的核心主题,充分披露舆情主题焦点信息,疏散舆情盲区,引导控制舆情走势。

Internet public opinion is the emotional expression of social political position and political attitude produced and held by the public on specific social emergencies in cyberspace.The evolution of Internet public opinion is the reflection of the change trend of Interne public opinion over time.The research on the evolution process of Internet public opinion can analyze the development process and development law of public opinion caused by emergencies in the Interne environment,and provide necessary theoretical support for the public decision-making departments to implement effective monitoring and early warning decision-making for public opinion events.Based on the traditional SEIR warehouse model of Internet public opinion communication,this paper constructs an improved SEIR model considering user's subject interest.Through the establishment of Internet public opinion evolution model,the key factors influencing the evolution of public opinion events are simulated and verified.The results show that the evolution of Internet public opinion in emergencies is not only related to the number of users and the status of users,but also has significant relationship with the subject interest and focus of network public opinion users.In the process of public decision-making,the government should not only strengthen the public opinion guidance for key users of Internet public opinion,but also constantly detect the core theme of Internet public opinion,fully disclose the topic focus information of public opinion,evacuate the blind area of public opinion,and guide and control the trend of public opinion.