基于灰色关联分析的中国农产品出口区域风险问题研究

Researches on Regional Risks of China's Agricultural Products Export Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

中国农产品出口面临巨大风险,并呈现区域化特征。对农产品区域风险进行测度可为防范区域风险提供数据支撑。灰色理论可以基于较少的、不确定样本数据的测量。本论文应用灰色关联工具对中国农产品出口区域风险进行测度。结果显示,在农产品出口区域风险方面,为了有效防范风险,按照由强到弱的原则,应重点关注FATF风险提示的国家或地区、毒品犯罪高风险地区、跨境诈骗高发地区、恐怖融资高发地区、金融透明度较低的国家或地区。

China's agricultural exports face huge risks and show the characteristics of regionalization.The measurement of regional risks of agricultural products can provide data support for preventing regional risks.Grey correlation tool can be based on the measurement of small and uncertain sample data.In this paper,the grey correlation tool is used to measure the regional risk of China's agricultural products export.The results show that:in terms of risks in agricultural products export regions,in order to effectively prevent risks,countries or regions with FATF risk warning,regions with high risk of drug crimes,regions with high incidence of crossborder fraud,regions with high incidence of terrorist financing and countries or regions with low financial transparency should be paid more attention to.