突发事件与人民币汇率演进

Emergencies and the Evolution of RMB Exchange Rate

论文比较改革开放以来人民币汇率几次改革的特点及异同,侧重分析突发事件对于汇率变动的影响。着重结合当前中美贸易摩擦及疫情等突发事件,分析汇率改革带来的经济绩效。基于VAR模型得出如下结论,首先,面对突发事件,人民币汇率促进了经济的平稳运行。不管在何种经济背景下,坚持市场化取向、在摸索中前进的汇率改革策略促进了我国的经济发展。其次,渐进式改革方式成功地推动了人民币汇率的演进,可以熨平突发事件带来的波动,保证经济的平稳过渡。最后,相较于西方汇率制度主要受制于利益集团,人民币汇率改革是符合人民大众利益的,联系实际的应用理论,推动汇率演进。

The paper compares the characteristics and similarities and differences of several reforms of the RMB exchange rate since the reform and opening up,focusing on the analysis of the impact of emergencies on exchange rate changes.Focus on the current Sino-US trade frictions and epidemics and other emergencies to analyze the economic performance brought about by the exchange rate reform.Based on the VAR model,the following conclusions can be drawn.First,in the face of emergencies,the RMB exchange rate promotes the smooth operation of the economy.Regardless of the economic background,the exchange rate reform strategy of adhering to the market orientation and advancing through exploration has promoted my country's economic development.Second,the gradual reform method has successfully promoted the evolution of the RMB exchange rate,which can smooth out the fluctuations caused by emergencies and ensure a smooth economic transition.Finally,compared to the Western exchange rate system which is mainly controlled by interest groups,the reform of the RMB exchange rate is in the interest of the general public,and the application of the theory in connection with reality promotes the evolution of exchange rates.