考虑设备利用效率和规划执行情况的配电网规划投资分配模型

Investment allocation model of distribution network planning considering equipment utilization efficiency and planning implementation

针对配电网规划编制过程中总体投资水平反复变化的问题,提出包括规划期负荷电量增量、供电可靠率现状指标与目标值差值、负荷电量预测达成率、规划投资完成率、建设规模完成率、容载比、平均负载率、残旧设备规模、城镇化率、建成区面积、历史投资水平等33项分配指标,分别构建基于容载比增量空间和负载率合理区间的分配参数修正函数,采用德尔菲法和层次分析法建立基于总体投资能力的配电网规划投资分配模型,具有宏观全面性和良好的操作性,能够提高各区域配电网投资分配的科学性和规划效率。通过GZ配电网历史规划及实际投资数据进行验证,结果表明:该模型相对误差满足规划阶段投资估算要求,比传统方法更加接近实际投资情况,具有较好的适应性和实用价值。

Aiming at the problem of repeated changes in the overall investment level in the process of distribution network planning,this article proposes 33 types of allocation indicators including the increase in load power during the planning period,the difference between the current indicalors of the power supply reliability rale and its tanget value,the rate of achieving the load power forecast,the completion rate of the planned investment,the completion rate of the construction scale,capacity ratio,the averge load rate,the scale of the old equipment,the urbanization rate,the built-up area of urban,the historical level of investment,etc,The paper constructs distribution parameter correction functions based on the capacity load ratio iherement space and load ratio reasonable interval respectively.The Delphi method and the analytie hierarchy process are used to establish the investment allocation model of distribution network planning based on overall investment capacity,which has macro comprechensiveness and good operability,as well as can improve the scientifie nature and planning fficiency of each regional distibution network investmenl.This model is verifed by GZ distibution network historical planning and actual investment data.The results show that the relative error of the model which is closer to the actual investment situation than the traditional method meets the investment estimation requirements in the planning stage,and has good adaptability and practical value.