衢州市双季晚稻秋季低温冷害风险评估模型

Risk Assessment Model of Low Temperature Chilling Injury for Double-cropping Late Rice in Quzhou City

为掌握衢州市双季晚稻秋季低温冷害发生规律,采用1951—2018年衢州市本站日气象观测数据,从气象因子入手,采用主成分分析法,找出2个主分量,建立指标评价模型;应用聚类分割法,对指标进行了分级。统计结果表明,1951年至2018年衢州双季晚稻秋季低温冷害发生频率为2年出现1次,上世纪50年代最强,60年代为历史最轻年代;上世纪80年代和本世纪00年代多以轻度灾害为主;上世纪90年代和本世纪10年代为强度较弱的年代。1953年、1970年、1973年低温冷害比较严重。双季晚稻低温冷害严重年的气候明显异常,并且与双季晚稻产量减少相关,较严重的秋季低温冷害年出现明显的减产。采用主成分分析和指标评价分析法对衢州市双季晚稻抽穗期进行低温冷害的评估是可行的。

In order to grasp the occurrence regularity of low temperature chilling injury in double-cropping late rice in Quzhou city,based on the daily meteorological data from 1951—2018 in Quzhou city,starting with meteorological factors,using principal component analysis to find two principal components and establishing an index evaluation model;the clustering segmentation method was used to rank the indices.The statistical results showed that the frequency of low-temperature chilling damage in the autumn of double-cropping late rice from 1951 to 2018 occurred once in two years,the strongest in the 1950s,and the lightest in the 1960s;there were mostly mild disasters in the 1980s and 2000s;the damage intensity was weak in the 1990s and 2010s.In 1953,1970 and 1973,low temperature chilling damage was more serious.The climate of the double-cropping late rice with severe cold damage is also obviously abnormal,and it is related to the decrease of the yield of double-cropping late rice.The more severe autumn low temperature and cold damage shows a significant decrease in production.In the years with severe cold damage in autumn,the double-cropping late rice has significantly reduced yield.It is feasible to evaluate low temperature chilling damage of double cropping late rice at the heading stage in Quzhou using principal component analysis and index evaluation analysis method.