高铁开通对收缩型城市转型发展的影响——基于三大要素集聚的研究

The Impact of High-Speed Rail on the Transformation and Development of Shrinking Cities--A Research based on the Aggregation of the Three Elements

基于劳动力、资本和技术要素集聚的观察视角,就高铁开通对收缩型城市转型发展的影响进行定量评估。研究结果表明,中国收缩型城市的空间分布呈现出“小群落”的聚集特征,主要集中在东北地区,珠三角地区和长三角地区。多期差分模型的估计结果表明,中国高铁开通后的四五年中,在一定程度上促进了收缩型城市的人口回流,但并不具有持续的稳定性,并且不利于收缩型城市的经济发展;进一步的机制检验结果表明,高铁开通并未有效带动收缩型城市的劳动力集聚,反而在一定程度上造成了资本要素扩散。提出推动收缩型城市转型发展的对策建议,即树立精明发展理念、加强引才聚才和促进区域间合作。

Based on the observation of the agglomeration of labor,capital and technological factors,this paper makes a quantitative assessment of the impact of high-speed railway operating on the transformation and development of contractionary cities.The results show that the spatial distribution of China′s shrinking cities shows the aggregation characteristics of"small communities",mainly concentrated in Northeast China,the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta.The estimation results of the Multi-Phase DID model show that the HSR operating in four to five years promotes,to a certain extent,the return of population in shrinking cities,but this positive effect does not have sustained stability,and the high-speed railway operating is not conducive to the economic development of the shrinking cities.The results of further mechanism tests show that the high-speed rail operating has not effectively driven the labor concentration in these cities,but caused the diffusion of capital factors to a certain extent.Finally,three suggestions are put forward to promote the transformation and development of shrinking cities,including establishing the concept of smart development,attracting and gathering talents and promoting inter-regional cooperation.