基于蒙特卡洛模拟预测正交胶合木(CLT)顺纹抗压强度

Prediction of the Compressive Strength of Cross-laminated Timber Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

基于《木结构试验方法标准》测试锯材和正交胶合木(CLT)顺纹抗压强度,采用正态分布、对数正态分布、威布尔分布函数进行数据拟合,利用K-S检验判断拟合优度,基于复合层板理论利用蒙特卡洛模拟预测CLT顺纹抗压强度。结果表明,CLT和锯材的顺纹抗压强度平均测试值分别为39.96 MPa和30.41 MPa;采用威布尔分布的拟合优度最高;CLT抗压强度的预测值与实测值相对误差在8%以下,采用蒙特卡洛模拟数据预测CLT顺纹抗压强度平均值和5%分位值的相对误差分别为5.8%和-0.8%,具有更高预测准确性。

Based on the national standard of China,GB/T 50329-2012“Standard for Test Methods of Timber Structures”,the ultimate compressive strength parallel to grain of lumber and cross-laminated timber(CLT)was tested.The normal distribution,lognormal distribution and Weibull distribution functions were adopted to fit the test results.K-S test was used to determine the most consistent probability distribution.The compressive strength of CLT was predicted by using Monte Carlo simulation method(MCS)based on the composite laminate theory.The study results showed that the values of average compressive strength of CLT and timber were 39.9 MPa and 30.41 MPa,respectively.Weibull distribution had the highest goodness of fit.The relative error between the prediction value and measured value of compressive strength of CLT was under 8.0%.There was higher predictive accuracy of CLT's compressive strength by using MCS method,whose relative error of average value and 5%percentile value were 5.8%and-0.8%,respectively.