基于SEIR模型改进的疫情传播模型的研究与验证

A Research and Verification of a Epidemic Spread Model Based on the Improvement of the SEIR Model

近年来各类传染病疫情在人口密度大、交通网发达的区域中爆发往往会造成严重的传染病疫情,因此,对传染病疫情传播模型的研究是十分必要的。在传染病疫情传播的经典SEIR模型基础上,着重研究了现有疫情传播模型的局限性,并提出了一种针对性的改进思路。为验证改进后的模型,采用了2003年“非典”疫情期间的相关数据作为模型参数赋值,在Matlab中实现了该模型并仿真运行,仿真结果与2003年实际数据作对比,在此基础上对新模型客观评价并展望了下一步研究工作的思路和重点。

In recent years,if all kinds of infectious epidemcis occur in high population density and traffic network well-developed regions,they will cause serious infectious disease situation,so the research on infectious disease spread model is very necessary.This paper the limitation of existing epidemic spread models based on the SEIR model is focusly researched,and an improved thought with pertinence is provided.For testing and verification of the impoved model some statistical data of SARS of the year 2003 is used as model parameter assignment.Inmatlab the model is realized and simulated,the simulation results are compared with the real date of year 2003.On this basis,the model is objectively assessed and the next thoughts and focces of research work are prospected.