中国科技特派员制度的扩散分析——基于省际扩散的实证

Study on Diffusion of the Technical Task Force System in China——Based on the Empirical Evidence of Inter-Provincial Diffusion

基于政策创新与扩散视角构建了一个内部需求一外部压力政策扩散模型,分析科技特派员制度扩散的主要影响因素。运用C o x比例风险模型和1999〜2007年中国31个省份数据,实证分析科技特派员制度扩散的主要影响因素。实证研究发现:农民收入是影响科技特派员制度采纳的主要内部需求因素;在外部压力因素中,全国扩散的压力能够促进科技特派员制度的采纳,而相邻扩散效果不明显;科技部在2002年组织的科技特派员试点工作会议对于科技特派员制度的扩散起到了关键作用,但随后的两次主要推动措施则作用不显著。

Based on the perspective of policy innovation and diffusion,a policy diffusion model of internal demand-external pressure was constructed and the main influencing factors on TTFS were analyzed in this paper.A Cox proportional hazards model and data of 31 provinces in China from 1999 to 2007 were used to empirically analyze the main influencing factors of the diffusion of TTFS.Empirical result showed that farmers"income was the main internal demand factor affecting the adoption of the TTFS.Among external pressure factors,the pressure of national diffusion could promote the adoption of the TTFS,while the effect of adjacent diffusion was not obvious.The pilot work conference of the TTFS organized by Ministry of Science and Technology of China in 2002 played a key role in the diffusion of TTFS,but the two major promotion measures that followed were less effective.