摘要
根据目标导向不同可以将公共应对方案归纳为“经济运行优先型”“民众健康优先型”和“兼顾平衡型”三种类型。通过建立基于新冠肺炎传染特征的系统动力学仿真模型,结合不同的经济社会环境,对三种方案的防控效果及经济抑制影响进行综合考量。仿真结果显示,及时执行居家隔离措施是短期防控成功的关键,“经济运行优先型”和“兼顾平衡型”方案既在疫情防控方面表现得不理想,也没有达到降低经济抑制的预想效果。
According to the diferent goal orientation,the public response plan can be classified into three types in this paper:“economic operation priority”,“public health priority”and“balanced”.By establishing a system dynamics simulation model and combining different economic and social environments,it comprehensively considered the efects of the three schemes on the control and economic effects.The simulation results showed that the key to the success of short-term prevention and control was to implement the home isolation measures in time.
作者
杨守德
陈伟
YANG Shou-de;CHEN Wei(Schoo of Economics and Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001;School of Economics,Harbin University of Commerc,Harbin 150028)
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第11期130-136,共7页
Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(18BJY174)。
关键词
流行病防控
公共应对方案
系统动力学
仿真
epidemic prevention and control
public response plan
system dynamics
simulation
