金融危机后宏观政策对我国汽车市场的影响研究——基于动态面板数据系统GMM模型

Research on the Impact of Macro Policies on China's Automobile Market after Financial Crisis Based on Dynamic System GMM Model for Panel Data

分析了2008年金融危机以来我国实施的一系列与汽车市场密切相关的宏观政策,汽车下乡、小排量汽车购置税优惠、以旧换新、新能源汽车补贴等政策有效地促进了我国汽车市场的发展,限牌限购政策则明显地抑制了汽车消费。基于2002—2017年省际汽车销量面板数据,采用动态面板数据系统GMM模型实证分析了宏观政策对我国汽车市场的影响,结果表明:我国汽车市场具有明显的惯性效应,宏观政策对我国汽车市场的促进和抑制效应都非常显著,其中汽车市场激励政策虚拟变量的估计系数显著为正,汽车市场抑制政策虚拟变量的估计系数显著为负;相对于促进政策,抑制政策对汽车市场的影响程度更为明显;居民消费水平、汽车产量、公路货运量、公路客运量等因素对汽车市场也具有显著为正的促进效应。在实证分析基础上,对我国在未来制定和实施汽车市场相关的宏观政策提出了对策建议。

This paper analyzes a series of macro policies that have been closely related to auto market in China since the 2008 financial crisis.Policies such as car subsidy program for rural areas,tax incentives for small displacement cars,subsidies for trading-in old car for new ones,and purchase subsidies for new energy vehicles have effectively promoted development of China’s automobile market,while restrictions on car licenses and purchases have significantly restrained automobile consumption.Based on provincial automobile sales panel data from 2002 to 2017,dynamic panel data system GMM model was used to empirically analyze impact of macro policies on China's automobile market.The results show that China's automobile market has a significant inertia effect,and the impact of macro policies on the automobile market both promotion and suppression effects are very significant,in which estimated coefficient of dummy variable of automobile market incentive policy is significantly positive,and estimated coefficient of dummy variable of automobile market suppression policy is significantly negative.Compared with the promotion policy,the suppression policy has a greater degree of influence on the automobile market.It is obvious that the factors such as residents'consumption level,automobile production,highway freight volume,and highway passenger volume also have a significant positive promotion effect on the automobile market.Based on the empirical analysis,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the country to formulate and implement macro policies related to the automotive market in the future.