决策树在高速公路投资决策中的应用

Application of Decision Tree in Highway Investment Decision

为解决不确定性风险下高速公路项目的投资决策问题,针对多方案选择的情况,详细论述了决策树方法原理,通过建立定量图形模型,考虑每种方案的发生概率及在时间价值下的损益值,进而得到项目各方案投资期望值,最后举例分析了决策树如何为决策者提供最优方案,探索了在一定前提条件下的快速决策高速公路投资的方法,也为造价管理信息化提供了参考。

In order to solve the investment decision problem of highway projects under uncertain risks,the principle of the decision tree method is discussed in detail for the situation of multiple choices. By establishing a quantitative graphical model,the probability of occurrence of each option and the profit and loss value under time value are considered in order to obtain the expected investment value of each project of the project,finally,an example is given to analyze how the decision tree provides the optimal solution for the decision-maker,explores the method of rapid decision-making highway investment under certain prerequisites,and also provides a reference for the cost management information.