北京市六环高速公路沥青路面性能预测模型及精度分析

Performance Prediction Model and Accuracy Analysis of Asphalt Pavement of Sixth Ring Freeway in Beijing

由于道路养护方案的制定主要受高速公路路面性能评价指标的影响,因此路面性能评价指标预测精度决定了养护方案制定的合理性与适用性。该研究将收集到的北京市六环高速公路5种路用性能指标的观测数据进行线性拟合,建立了5种沥青路面性能评价指标的衰变预测模型并进行了精度检验。检验结果表明,拟合出的模型具有85%以上的准确度,可为今后北京市六环高速公路养护规划提供参考。

The highway pavement performance evaluation index greatly affect the road maintenance plan.Its’prediction accuracy determines the rationality and applicability of the plan.In this paper,the observed data five road performance indexes of Beijing Sixth Ring Expressway are linearly fitted.The decay prediction model is established and accuracy tested.The fitted model whose accuracy more than 85%can provide scientific guidance for the maintenance planning of Beijing Sixth Ring Expressway in the future.