基于多体系数据融合的主变压器全寿命成本分析

Life cycle cost analysis of main transformer based on the multi-system data fusion

针对全寿命周期成本测算困难的问题,在分析主变压器各项成本的特性基础上,提出分层级计算方法。该方法基于生产管理系统(PMS)、企业资源管理(ERP)系统多体系数据融合得到基础数据,通过引入回归分析、盲数理论,对建立的主变压器全寿命周期成本数学模型进行分层级计算。充分考虑资金的时间价值,采用经济学中净现值法将各阶段成本划归基础年份成本进行分析,使得模型更贴近实际。并以某国内外2家厂商的220 kV、180 MV·A电力变压器为例,分析全寿命周期成本的具体计算方法。结果表明,生产管理系统下数据驱动的分层级计算全寿命周期成本方法的有效性。

In view of the difficulty in calculating the life cycle cost,a hierarchical calculation method is proposed based on the characteristics analysis of various costs for the main transformer.The proposed method obtains the basic data by the data fusion of PMS and ERP systems.Then,the regression analysis and blind number theory are introduced to calculate the mathematical model of life cycle cost for the main transformer.Considering the time value of funds,the net present value method in economics is utilized to classify the cost of each stage into the cost of the base year for analysis,which makes the model closer to the reality.Finally,220 kV,180 MV·A power transformer of two domestic and foreign manufacturers are taken as an example to analyze the specific calculation method of life cycle cost.The results show that the data-driven hierarchical calculation method is effective.