陕西省粮食产量的影响因素及预测

Prediction and Factor Analysis of Grain Yield in Shaanxi Province

本文选取2009—2018年陕西省粮食产量相关要素数据,建立灰色关联分析模型,从生产投入和财政政策两个角度分析对陕西省粮食产量有影响的因素。并利用2009—2019年陕西省粮食产量数据建立灰色预测模型与动态灰色预测模型,并预测出陕西省未来4年的粮食产量,为政府加快推进粮食产业供给侧结构性改革,保障全省粮食市场供需动态平衡以及农业生产管理部门出台相应管理政策提供参考。

This paper selected the data of grain yield of related factors in Shaanxi province from 2009 to 2018,and analyzed the factors influencing grain yield in Shaanxi province from the perspectives of production input and fiscal policy.A grey relational analysis model was established to analyze the influence of different factors on grain yield in Shaanxi province.Using the grain output data of Shaanxi province from 2009 to 2017,a grey prediction model and a dynamic grey prediction model were established to predict the grain output of Shaanxi province in the next four years.According to the results,it provides reference for the government to accelerate the supply-side structural reform of the grain industry,ensure the dynamic balance of supply and demand in the grain market of the province,and introduce relevant management policies by the agricultural production administration department.