摘要
针对传统模糊集在汛限分期应用中存在阈值确定主观性较强和只考虑单一因素的缺点,提出改进模糊集分析法。该方法利用变异系数法和灰色关联分析法计算各指标加权平均值,构造综合指标划分汛期,再通过均值变点法进行汛期分期。研究以澄碧河水库为例,采用改进模糊集分析法进行汛期分期,同时基于日均流量资料计算相对优属度进行检验的结果具有合理性和可靠性,是解决水库汛期分期问题的一种可行方法。
In view of the shortcomings of traditional fuzzy set in the application of flood limit staging,such as the subjectivity of threshold determination and the consideration of only one factor,an improved fuzzy set analysis method is proposed.The proposed method calculates the weighted average value of each index by means of coefficient of variation and grey correlation analysis,divides flood season into comprehensive indexes,and divides flood season by means of mean point variation method.Taking Chengbihe Reservoir as an example,the improved fuzzy set analysis method is used to carry out flood season staging,and the relative superiority degree is calculated based on the average daily flow data to test the rationality.The results show that the improved fuzzy set analysis method is reasonable and reliable,and provides a feasible way to solve the problem of reservoir flood season staging.
作者
孙桂凯
刘思怡
王国帅
杜媞
莫崇勋
SUN Guikai;LIU Siyi;WANG Guoshuai;DU Ti;MO Chongxun(College of Civil and Architectural Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China)
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2020年第12期4-8,共5页
Water Power
基金
国家自然科学资金项目(51569004)
广西自然科学基金项目(2017GXNSFAA198361)
广西研究生教育创新计划项目(YCBZ2019022)。
关键词
汛期分期
合理性检验
改进模糊集分析
flood season staging
rationality test
improved fuzzy set analysis
