广东省经济增长的扩散回流与市场区效应实证检验

An Empirical Test of Spread-backwash and Market Area Effects of Economic Growth in Guangdong Province

利用广东省2001—2017年121个区县的空间面板数据,对广东省区域发展格局进行了空间探索性分析。并从经济发展水平、区域经济差异和行政等级网状布局3个视角,采用3种中心-次级-外围划分模式,构建基于空间分解的空间计量模型实证检验了扩散回流和市场区效应。研究发现:广东省区域经济发展正在向广深-珠三角非广深-非珠三角的格局演变;上级区域对下级区域的影响仍以回流效应为主,扩散效应逐渐显现;次级区域和外围区域的发展仍受制于行政区划层级的制约,行政区划下的城市等级体系依然显著影响区域经济的扩散回流和市场区效应;下级区域对上级区域的市场区效应依赖于下级区域的经济发展水平,当经济发展水平相差较大时,下级区域难以形成支撑上级区域经济发展的消费市场,广州和深圳2个城市的市场主要是全国和国际市场,珠三角其他城市和非珠三角地市中心城区的市场依然是本地市场。

This paper proposes an explanatory spatial analysis of the regional development pattern of Guangdong Province,based on the spatial panel data of 121 counties in Guangdong Province over 2001-2017 period.It proposes three regional division models of core-subordinate-peripheral regions,from the perspectives of economic development level,regional economic difference and network layout of administrative levels,to empirically test the spread-backwash and market area effect based on a spatial econometric model of spatial decomposition.The results show that:The regional development of Guangdong Province is evolving towards the pattern of Guangzhou and Shenzhen-the Pearl River Delta excluding Guangzhou and Shenzhen-non-the Pearl River Delta.The impact of the upper-level region on the lower-level region is still dominated by the backwash effect,and the spread effect is gradually emerging.The development of sub-regions and peripheral regions is still constrained by the level of administrative divisions.The urban hierarchy system under administrative divisions still significantly affects the spread-backwash and market area effects of regional economies.The market area effect of the lower regions on the upper regions depends on the economic development level of the lower regions.When the levels of economic development differ greatly,it is difficult for the lower regions to form a consumer market to support the economic development of the upper regions.The markets of Guangzhou and Shenzhen are mainly national and international markets.The markets of other non-the Pearl River Delta cities and non-the Pearl River Delta downtown areas remain local markets.