机器换人——工业机器人使用与区域劳动力市场调整

Machine Replacing Human:The application of industrial robots and local labor market adjustment

工业机器人的使用对我国制造业升级和经济结构转型具有重要影响,"机器换人"成为当前学界和社会广泛关注的时代命题。面对工业机器人使用的冲击,区域劳动力市场的就业和工资将会如何进行调整?基于2012—2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据和工具变量法进行的实证研究表明:第一,城市工业机器人的使用并没有造成当地劳动力市场整体就业岗位的减少,但导致了劳动力在不同部门之间的重新配置,即制造业部门就业概率下降,服务业部门就业概率上升,这一效应主要体现在低技能水平的劳动力群体;第二,在就业的集约边际方面,城市工业机器人的使用显著提高了当地劳动力的工作时长,这主要源于服务业部门工作时长的增加;第三,城市工业机器人的使用对当地劳动力的整体工资增长影响较小,但部门工资结构随之调整,其中制造业部门的工资和技能溢价增长较快,服务业部门的工资增长较慢,而技能溢价无显著变化。有鉴于此,政府在制定工业智能化发展的产业政策时需考虑其与劳动力市场就业和工资的关系,尤其要考虑制造业部门和低技能劳动力群体的利益,辅以相应的就业和收入再分配政策,以减少工业机器人使用所带来的调整成本。

The industrial robots have an important impact on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the transformation of economic structure.However,facing the wave of industrial robots replacing labor,what adjustments will the local labor market make in employment and wages?Based on the instrumental variable method and data of China s Labor-force Dynamics Survey from 2012 to 2016,the study shows that there is no evidence that robots cause total job losses,but they do lead to the re-allocation of labor among different sectors.The employment probability of the manufacturing sector decreased,but this loss was fully offset by additional jobs in the service sector.Moreover,robots have significantly increased the working hours of local labor,mainly due to the increase in working hours of labor in the service sector.In addition,the robots have a small effect on the overall local wage growth,but the wage structure has been adjusted accordingly.Wages and skill premiums in the manufacturing sector have increased rapidly,but wages in the service sector have increased slowly,and there was no significant change in skill premiums.Accordingly,the government needs to consider its relationship with labor market employment and wages when formulating policies for industrial intelligent development,especially considering the interests of the manufacturing sector and low-skilled labor groups.Implementing corresponding employment and income redistribution policies should be made to reduce adjustment costs caused by industrial robots.