行程时间服从截断正态分布的动态车队离散模型

Dynamic platoon dispersion model based on truncated normal distribution of travel time

为解决传统车队离散模型参数不能反映交通流实时变化特征的不足,利用车联网环境下实时的行程时间数据对模型参数进行动态估计,并在此基础上构建行程时间服从截断正态分布的动态车队流量离散模型。然后,通过实地调查数据,分析了路段上下游断面流率分布的特征和关系。最后,将本文模型与传统静态模型的预测结果和实际到达流率分布进行比较分析。结果表明:本文模型能够更准确地预测下游断面交通流的到达分布;且路段交通流的波动性越大,本文模型预测效果越好;与传统静态模型相比,本文模型预测的平均均方误差减少了23.55%。

The traditional platoon dispersion model parameters cannot reflect the time-varying characteristics of traffic flow.To solve this problem,the travel time data from the connected vehicles environment is used to estimate model parameters in real-time.Based on this,a dynamic platoon flow dispersion model is proposed,in which the travel time obeys truncated normal distribution.Then,based on the field survey data,the characteristics and relationship of the flow rate distribution of the upstream and downstream sections are analyzed.Finally,the prediction results of the distribution of the proposed model and traditional static model are compared with the actual arrival flow rate distribution.The results show that the dynamic parameters can better reflect the dynamic change of traffic flow,and the model can more accurately predict the arrival distribution of traffic flow in the downstream section.Compared with the traditional static model,the predicted mean square error of the proposed model is reduced by 23.55%.