基于路内路外停车关系优化模型的公共停车需求预测方法

Forecastin Method of Public Parking Demand Based on the Optimization Model of the Relationship Between on Road and off Road Parking

为弥补传统的基于机动车OD模型的停车需求预测方法中对于关键参数停车周转率的取值方法过于经验化和笼统化的不足,提高城市公共停车需求预测的科学性和准确性,创新提出了基于路内路外停车关系优化模型的预测方法。结合住建部颁发的《城市停车设施规划导则》中分区差别化停车设施供给的理念和对于路内停车泊位在充分发挥公共停车供给“临时性”作用的定位,对传统机动车OD模型中的停车周转率取值根据路外、路内停车设施的不同特征进行细分优化,并通过城市公共停车设施规划中对优化模型的运用分析,证明了基于原有模型得到的需求预测结果偏高,偏高比例与路内停车位在总体公共停车泊位供给结构中的比例基本一致。

In order to make up for the shortcomings of the traditional method of parking demand prediction based on the OD model of motor vehicles,which is too empirical and general for the value of the key parameters parking turnover rate,and improve the scientificity and accuracy of the urban public parking demand prediction,the prediction method based on the optimization model of on road and off road parking relationship is put forward innovatively.Based on the concept of differential partition parking facility provision in the"Guidelines for Urban Parking Facility Planning"issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural,and positioning of on road parking spaces to give full play to the"temporary"role of public parking supply,the value of parking turnover rate in the traditional OD model of motor vehicles is subdivided and optimized according to the different characteristics of the on-road and off-road parking facilities.Through the analysis of the application of the optimization model in the urban public parking facilities planning of a case,it is proved that the demand prediction result based on the original model is on the high side,and the proportion of the high side is basically consistent with the proportion of the on road parking space in the overall public parking supply structure。