基于突变级数法的高校突发事件应急管理能力评价模型

Evaluation Model of University Emergency Management Ability Based on Catastrophe Progression Method

高校突发事件应急管理能力评价是高校公共安全管理的关键工作之一。基于过程管理理论,将高校突发事件应急管理过程划分为预防与预警阶段、应急处置阶段、事后恢复阶段3个阶段。选取宣传教育能力、风险控制与预警能力、管理团队建设与运行能力、应急资源保障能力、应急管理指挥能力、现场控制能力、应急协调能力、事后处置能力、事后恢复建设能力等9个评价指标,建立了高校突发事件应急管理能力评价指标体系。基于突变级数法,构建了高校突发事件应急管理能力评价的突变模型。应用该模型对10个高校进行突发事件应急管理能力等级划分,结果表明该模型可有效预测高校突发事件应急管理能力,将突变级数法应用在高校突发事件应急管理能力评价中是合理可行的,为高校突发事件应急管理能力评价提供了一种新的方法。

The evaluation of university emergency management ability is one of the key work of university public security management.Based on the theory of process management,this paper divides the emergency management process into three stages:prevention and early warning stage,emergency disposal stage and post recovery stage.In this paper,nine evaluation indexes are selected,including the ability of publicity and education,the ability of risk control and early warning,the ability of management team construction and operation,the ability of emergency resource guarantee,the ability of emergency management command,the ability of on-site control,the ability of emergency coordination,the ability of post event disposal and the ability of post event recovery construction,and are used to establish the evaluation index system of emergency management ability in university.Based on the catastrophe progression method,this paper constructs a catastrophe model for the evaluation of university emergency management ability.The results show that the model can effectively predict the emergency management ability of university.It is reasonable and feasible to apply the catastrophe progression method to the evaluation of emergency management ability of university.Catastrophe progression method provides a new method for the evaluation of emergency management ability of university.