草地贪夜蛾在云南省曲靖市的潜在适生区及其造成的经济损失评估

The potential distribution analysis and economic loss assessment of Spodoptera frugiperda(Smith) in Qujing,Yunnan Province

草地贪夜蛾起源于美洲热带和亚热带地区,是联合国粮农组织全球预警的重要农业害虫.对该虫的潜在适生区进行预测分析并评估其造成的经济损失,可以为相关管理部门制订防控预警和防治措施提供有价值的参考.研究采用MaxEnt模型对该虫在云南的潜在适生区进行预测分析.基于曲靖市农业局统计的玉米种植面积,结合实际调查草地贪夜蛾对其取食及造成的减产情况,进一步评估该虫对云南省曲靖市农业可能造成的经济损失,得出该虫2019年对玉米为害造成的直接经济损失为2902.67万元.草地贪夜蛾最早侵入我国的省份就是云南,给我国农业带来巨大威胁,应进一步加大防控力度.曲靖市位于云南省东部,为云南、广西、贵州三省交界处,更应在农药防治的基础上开展合理的防治控制措施,利用监测技术严密监测虫情动态,以期防止草地贪夜蛾进一步迁飞扩散.

Spodoptera frugiperda(Smith)(Lepidoptera:Noctuidae),a fall armyworm,native to tropical and subtropical areas of America,is an extremely destructive agricultural pest worldwide.To offer the theory reference for risk analysis and comprehensive treatment on S.frugiperda(Smith),the potential geographical distribution and economic loss of S.frugiperda in Qujing,Yunnan Province was studied.Based on the native occurrence data and environmental variables,the potential geographic distribution of S.frugiperda in Qujing was predicted by maximum entropy(MaxEnt) niche model combined with ArcGIS for correlation analysis.The potential economic loss of maize was calculated based on the corn planting area from agricultural bureau and the actual investigation on the feeding and reduction of corn yield caused by the S.frugiperda.The results showed that the direct economic loss caused by the pest to maize was 29.0267 million yuan.Yunnan Province,as the first S.frugiperda invading province,has brought great threat to China’s agriculture.Qujing is located in the eastern part of Yunnan Province,which is the junction of Yunnan,Guangxi and Guizhou provinces.A scientific basis is provided for monitoring,better control and preventing S.frugiperda from further spread into other area.