中国城乡居民旅游消费周期的区制划分及动态变迁分析

An Analysis on the Regime Division and Dynamic Change of the Tourism Consumption Cycle of Urban and Rural Residents in China

文章利用HP滤波和马尔科夫区制转移模型,识别并刻画了1995—2018年我国城乡居民旅游消费周期的时序波动及区制的动态变迁过程。结果表明:总体来看,在研究期内,我国城镇居民和农村居民旅游消费呈现总量不断攀升但增长率往复波动的发展态势,其增速动态变化过程可以划分为“低速增长区制”和“高速增长区制”,且“低速增长区制”表现出更强的稳定性和持续性。对比来看,我国农村居民旅游消费增长的稳定性较弱,周期波动频率更高,特别是在2012年以前,表现出在“高速增长区制”和“低速增长区制”之间频繁交替的运行态势;2012年后我国城镇居民和农村居民旅游消费同期步入了长达七年的“低速增长区制”,并呈现继续维系在“低速增长区制”的趋势,因此,未来我国还需继续引导和扩大城乡居民的旅游消费需求。

This paper used the annual data of tourism consumption of urban and rural residents in China from 1995 to 2018 and described and tested the characteristics of the regime switching and the dynamic change process of China’s tourism consumption cycle of urban and rural residents by applying HP Filtering Method and Markov Regime Switching Model.The results are:During the sampling period,the tourism consumption of urban and rural residents in China shows a trend of increasing in total with a fluctuating growth rate.The dynamic change process of growth rate can be divided into“low-speed growth regime”and“high-speed growth regime”,and shows stronger stability and sustainability at the“low-speed growth regime”.By contrast,the stability of rural residents'tourism consumption growth is weaker than urban residents,and the frequency of cycle fluctuation is higher,especially before 2012.It showed a reciprocating trend between the“low-speed growth regime”and the“high-speed growth regime”.After 2012,the tourism consumption of the sampled groups stepped into a“low-speed growth regime”for seven years at the same time,and showed a trend of continuing to maintain at the“lowspeed growth regime”Therefore,in the future,governments need to continue to guide and expand the tourism consumption demand of urban and rural residents.