环境污染、公众健康需求与经济发展——基于调节效应和门槛效应的分析

Environmental Pollution,Public Health Demand and Economic Development——Based on Regulation Effect and Threshold Effect

本文利用2003-2016年中国地级及以上城市数据,采用面板固定效应模型和门槛回归方法,探讨环境污染、公众健康需求和经济发展三者之间的关联机制。结果发现,第一,环境污染在公众健康需求对经济发展的影响路径中具有干扰型调节效应;第二,该调节效应具有先促降后促升的非线性特征,公众健康需求会随着环境污染的增加出现先抑制后促进经济发展的趋势;第三,该调节效应具有显著的城市异质性,经济发展水平和财政分权能够促使拐点前置,减轻拐点前公众健康需求对经济发展的负向影响,提高拐点后的正向影响。若不考虑城市的经济、制度等特征变量,容易低估环境污染和公众健康需求对经济发展的作用程度。研究结论丰富了环境污染、公众健康需求和经济发展三者关系的相关研究成果,对于中国城市协调环境建设、民生建设和经济建设也具有重要的理论参考和政策启示。

Based on the panel data of cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2003 to 2016,this paper uses panel fixed effect model and threshold regression method to explore the correlation mechanism among environmental pollution,public health demand and economic development.The result shows that,firstly,environmental pollution has a disturbing regulatory effect on the path of the impact of public health demand on economic development;secondly,the regulatory effect is nonlinear,the effect of public health demand on economic development appears suppress and then promote following the pollution increases;thirdly,the regulatory effect has significant regional heterogeneity.The economic development and fiscal decentralization can promote the inflection point ahead,reduce the negative impact before the inflection point and improve the positive impact after the inflection point.If the characteristic variables of city’s economy and system are not considered,underestimated regression results will be gotten.This paper enriches the relevant research results of the relationship among environmental pollution,public health demand and economic development,and has important theoretical reference and policy enlightenment for China’s urban coordinated environmental construction,people’s livelihood construction and economic construction.