国际旅游岛建设的经济增长效应及其影响路径——基于海南的经验分析

Economic Growth Effect and Influence Path of International Tourism Island Construction:An Empirical Analysis Based on Hainan

利用2010年海南的政策实践作为自然实验,基于1996—2017年中国内地省级面板数据,采用合成控制法测度了国际旅游岛建设的经济增长效应,分析其影响路径。结果表明:1)合成控制法能够很好地拟合国际旅游岛建设实施前海南省的经济增长路径,通过对比国际旅游岛建设前后经济变量的实际值与“反事实”值之差,证实国际旅游岛建设能够有效推动海南地区经济增长;2)国际旅游岛建设确实通过需求侧的消费和投资路径以及供给侧的第三产业发展路径对海南的经济增长产生促进作用。最后依据实证结果提出完善国际旅游岛建设的政策建议,以服务于中国海岛经济发展和海洋强国战略实践。

In the backdrop of slow growth in traditional industries,the marine economy has gradually become a new bright spot for economic and social development in various countries.As a new institutional model of island development and island economic development in China,"international tourism island construction"bears the important responsibility of promoting the coordinated development of regional economy and the marine development strategy.The existing research on the economic development of China's islands focuses on the development strategies that include:"what an international tourism island is"and"how to build an international tourism island."Few empirical studies focus on the specific preferential policies such as tax exemption for outlying islands,and there is no systematic study on the economic growth effect of the construction of international tourism islands.This leaves many questions unanswered regarding the economic development system model of international tourism island construction.Using the policy practice of Hainan Province in 2010 as a natural experiment,based on the provincial panel data of China's mainland from 1996 to 2017,the economic growth effect of the construction of the international tourism island is measured using the synthetic control method,and its influence path is analyzed.The results showed that:1)the synthetic control method can well fit the economic growth path of Hainan Province before the implementation of the construction of international tourism island,and they confirmed that the construction of the international tourism island can effectively promote the economic growth of the Hainan area;2)the construction of the international tourism island,indeed,promotes the economic growth of Hainan through the consumption and investment path on the demand side,and the tertiary industry development path on the supply side;3)the net export and the secondary sectors of the construction industry are not the influence paths of Hainan International Tourism Island construction to promote local economic growth.This shows that the institutional model of promoting the economic development of the island area through the construction of the international tourism island conforms to the development principle of China's construction of a new pattern of domestic circulation dominated by domestic and international mutual promotion,and strongly refutes the misconception that the construction of the Hainan International Tourism Island is failing to promote internationalization,or that the Hainan International Tourism Island construction relies on real estate to develop the economy.This paper identifies the economic growth effect and influence path of Hainan International Tourism Island construction,makes up for the lack of quantitative analysis of international tourism island construction research,and,based on the empirical results,puts forward policy suggestions to improve the construction of an international tourism island and an institutional model experience that can be replicated and promoted in other island areas to serve the economic development of China's islands and the strategic practice of maritime power.