变化环境下泾河流域径流变化归因分析

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Jinghe River Basin with Environmental Change

本文基于泾河流域1960—2018年共59年的径流资料和气象数据,定量分析了气候变化和人类活动对泾河流域径流变化的影响.结果表明:泾河流域年径流呈现显著减少趋势,年径流在1996年存在突变.基于Budyko假设的归因分析方法表明人类活动对泾河流域径流减小的贡献率为84.73%,是导致流域年径流减少的主要原因;而气候变化对泾河流域径流减少的贡献为15.27%,其中,相较于降水,蒸散发对径流变化的影响更大,其贡献率为14.67%.本文研究结果为泾河流域水资源管理提供一定的科学支撑,对该地区制定可持续发展策略具有重要实际意义.

Based on runoff data and meteorological data from 1960 to 2018,the impacts and contributions of climate change and human activities on the runoff change in Jinghe River Basin are quantitatively analyzed.The results show that runoff has a significant decreasing trend with an abrupt change in 1996 in Jinghe River Basin.The attribution analysis result based on Budyko hypothesis shows that human activities reduces the runoff in Jinghe basin of 84.73%,which is the overwhelming effect to runoff reduction.In contrast,the climate change contribution is 15.27% to runoff change,where the evapotranspiration contribution is 14.67% which is greater than that of precipitation.The results provide a scientific basis for regional water resources management,and have great practical significance to making sustainable development strategies in this region.