营口港集装箱吞吐量的灰色预测模型研究

The Study of Gray Model For Container Throughput Forecast of Yingkou Port

随着辽宁省港口整合工作的推进,以内贸集装箱业务为特色的营口港将迎来新的发展阶段。论文采用灰色GM(1,1)模型构建2020年营口港集装箱码头集装箱吞吐量预测模型。通过分析和对比不同历史数据维度的预测结果和精度发现:数据维度影响预测结果精度,7维数据序列的灰色模型预测结果精度更高。论文根据该模型预测营口港2020年主要集装箱码头的集装箱吞吐量将达到739.1万TEU。

With the advancement of port integration in Liaoning province,the container business of Yingkou Port is entering a new stage of development.In this paper,the gray model GM(1,1)is used to construct the container throughput forecast model of Yingkou Port's main container terminals in 2020.By analyzing and comparing the prediction results in different data dimensions,it is found that the size of the data dimension affects the accuracy of the prediction results and the gray model prediction results of the 7-dimensional data sequence have higher accuracy.According to this model,it is predicted that the container throughput of Yingkou Port's main container terminals will reach 7,391,100 TEUs in 2020.