重庆市轨道交通客流时间特性及影响因素探讨

A Tentative Study on the Time Characteristic and Influencing Factors of Urban Rail Passenger Flow in Chongqing

轨道交通客流是反映轨道交通运行状况的关键指标。为了分析轨道交通客流的时间特性与关键影响因素,以2018年7月至2019年12月重庆市主城区轨道交通线网与线路客流数据为基础,以年度、季度、月度、周期、日间为单位,总结主城区轨道交通线网与线路客流的时变规律,分析节假日、天气、公交专用道开通以及道路交通运行等因素对于轨道客流的影响。首先利用单因素方差分析法研究各时变事件、影响因素的差异显著性,然后采用多因素方差分析法研究影响轨道交通线网客流的关键因素。研究表明,轨道线网与线路长度、节假日与道路交通运行状况是影响轨道交通线网客流的关键因素。

Rail transit passenger flow is a key indicator that reflects the status of rail transit operations. In order to analyze the time characteristics and key influencing factors of passenger flow in rail transit network, based on the data of rail transit network and lines passenger flow from July 2018 to December 2019 in Chongqing’s main urban areas, this paper summarizes the timevarying orderliness of rail transit network and lines passenger flow in terms of years, quarters, months, weeks and days, analyzes the factors affecting the rail passenger flow such as holidays, weather, the opening of bus lanes and road traffic operations, studies the significant differences of time-varying events and influencing factors by means of one-way ANOVA, and the key factors that affect the passenger flow in rail transit network are finally studied by means of multi-factor variance analysis. The research shows that rail transit network and line length, holidays and road traffic operation are the key factors affecting the passenger flow of rail transit network.