学科领域发展态势分析:五维分析法

Development Trends of Science Discipline:Five-Dimension Analysis Method

学科领域发展态势对情报分析人员掌握科技领域动态、政策制定者制定政策决策而言至关重要。对中国知网上发表的学科领域发展态势的文章进行梳理发现,目前针对这一领域尚无统一的、可依据的分析方法体系。本文基于已发表的相关文章,提出进行学科领域发展态势分析所需要思考的五个维度的问题,即五维分析法:对象维、载体维、数据维、时间维及方法维。同时比较了这五种维度下不同选择的原因及其可能出现的结果,并结合笔者多年从事科学发展态势分析的工作经验给出了相应的选择建议。

Development trends in the discipline of science are crucial for intelligence analysts to grasp the status of science and technology and for policymakers to make the right policy decisions. According to articles on development trends in the discipline of science published by China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI), there are no unified and reliable methods to follow in this field. Based on published related articles, this paper proposes five dimensional directions that should be considered in the process of analysis of the development trend, namely the five-dimension method: object dimension, carrier dimension, data dimension, time dimension, and method dimension. The reasons for different choices in this dimension and their corresponding possible outcomes are compared. Furthermore, in combination with the author s work experience in this field, corresponding selection suggestions are offered.