中国地级市生态承载力的环境效应研究

Study on the Environmental Effect of Ecological Carrying Capacity of Prefecture-Level Cities in China

生态承载力作为区域基础要素禀赋对环境的反馈效应尚未得到学术界的充分重视。该文基于2005-2016年中国284个地级市的面板数据,分析环境污染的空间特征,构建空间杜宾模型,探讨生态承载力的环境效应。研究发现:1)中国地级市环境污染会通过空间溢出效应影响相邻地区,总体而言,在限定经济社会其他因素条件下,生态承载力较高的地区,污染物排放量相对较低,即生态承载力对于环境有正向反馈效应,生态福祉假说成立;2)生态承载力环境效应存在地区差异,东部的福祉效应更为显著;3)生态承载力较高地区能充分发挥产业结构高级化的积极效应,减少环境污染,也会增强制造业集聚的负面效应,提升污染物排放水平。为此,地方政府需重视生态承载力对于经济活动的反馈效应,因地制宜降低环境污染水平;同时要推动产业结构转化升级,扩大生态承载力对于环境污染影响的积极效应。

The study of the environmental effect of ecological carrying capacity in prefecture-level cities in China is helpful to strengthen the construction of ecological civilization and provide support for the development of high quality economy.At the same time,with the strengthening of interregional links,the analysis without considering the spatial factors is more and more unable to meet the needs of the research.Therefore,this paper uses the panel data of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2016 to construct a spatial Dubin model,and discusses the relationship between ecological carrying capacity and environmental pollution and the transmission mechanism.The research results have certain reference value for understanding the influence mechanism of ecological carrying capacity and environmental pollution,solving the problem of regional environmental control and promoting the high quality development of economy.It is found that environmental pollution in prefecture-level cities of China will affect adjacent areas through spatial spillover effect.In general,in areas with high ecological carrying capacity under the condition of limited economic and social factors,the discharge of pollutants is relatively low,that is,ecological carrying capacity has positive feedback effect on environment,and ecological well-being hypothesis holds.Further,there are regional differences in the environmental effects of ecological carrying capacity,and the welfare effects in the eastern region are more significant.Areas with high ecological carrying capacity can give full play to the positive effect of industrial structure upgrading,reduce environmental pollution,and also enhance the negative effect of manufacturing agglomeration and raise the emission level of pollutants.Therefore,local governments should pay attention to the feedback effect of ecological carrying capacity on economic activities,reduce the level of environmental pollution according to local conditions,promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,and expand the positive effect of ecological carrying capacity on environmental pollution.