河北省县域住宅地价时空关联特征及溢出效应分析

Study on Spatial-Temporal Correlation Characteristics and Spillover Effect of County-Level Residential Land Price in Hebei Province

市场经济条件下价格机制对土地资源有效利用和合理配置的作用日益突出。基于2012年和2016年河北省145县(市、区)住宅地价,运用核密度估计、空间自相关分析方法对地价时空格局与关联特征进行分析,选择空间计量模型对地价溢出效应及其影响因素进行甄别和量化。结果表明:2012-2016年全省县域住宅地价整体呈增长趋势,全局与局部空间集聚的空间关联特征显著,Moran′s I指数由0.233升至0.411,相邻县之间差异不断缩小,但高—高集聚区和低—低集聚区的分布格局基本稳定;全省住宅地价存在干扰性的空间依赖,其溢出效应在经济发展和居民生活水平作用下显著增强,在区位条件、城镇集聚规模和基础设施作用下被削弱,对地价贡献最大因素为城镇居民人均可支配收入,而距市中心距离始终为阻碍因素。通过探究县域城市间地价空间关联特征及其影响因素,可为差别化调控土地市场、提高土地利用效率以及指导城市规划与发展提供科学依据。

Under the condition of market economy,price mechanism plays an increasingly important role in the effective utilization and rational allocation of land resources.Based on the residential land prices of 145 counties(cities,districts)in Hebei Province in 2012 and 2016,the spatio-temporal pattern and correlation characteristics of land prices were analyzed by using kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods,and the spatial econometric model was selected to screen and quantify the spillover effect of land prices and its influencing factors.The results show that:from 2012 to 2016,the residential land prices in counties in Hebei Province showed an overall growth trend,and the spatial correlation characteristics of global and local spatial agglomeration were significant.The Moran′s I index increased from 0.233 to 0.411,and the differences between neighboring counties were constantly narrowing,but the distribution pattern of high-high concentration areas and low-low concentration areas were basically stable.There was a disturbing spatial dependence on residential land prices in the province,the spillover effect was significantly enhanced by the role of economic development and residents'living standards,and weakened under the influence of location conditions,urban agglomeration scale and infrastructures.The factor that made the greatest contribution to residential land prices was the per capita income of urban residents,while the distance from the city center was always the obstacle.By exploring the spatial correlation characteristics and influencing factors of land prices among counties,it can provide scientific basis for differentially regulating the land market,improving land use efficiency,and guiding urban planning and development.