货币政策的宏观经济效应:包含政策和技术的双预期DSGE框架

Macroconomic Effect of Montetary Policy:A Double expectations DSGE Model that includes Policy and Technology expectations

本文构建包含政策预期和技术预期的双预期DSGE模型,基于多重指标刻画不同情形下货币政策的宏观经济效应。分析结果表明:在数量型规则下,货币政策预期与技术进步预期之间存在“预期错配”现象,在多指标下包含政策预期的货币政策经济效应最显著。在价格型规则下,货币政策预期与技术进步预期之间产生“叠加效应”,包含货币政策预期与技术进步预期的货币政策经济效应最显著。在不同政策目标下,货币政策量价工具调控优势不同,数量型工具和价格型工具均非宏观调控“占优”选择。政策当局应充分考虑不同预期冲击及组合的调控效果,有区分的运用量价工具,合理指引行为决策,避免不同冲击间的“预期错配”。

This article constructs a double expectations DSGE model that includes policy expectations and technology expectations under the new Keynesian framework,and describes the effectiveness of monetary policy in different situations based on a multi-index evaluation system.The research results show that:(1)Under the quantitative rules,there are expectation misallocations,and the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy expectations under the multi-index evaluation system are the most significant.(2)Under the price-based rules,the expectations of monetary policy and the expectations of technological progress produced the“combined effects”of the same frequency resonance.The macroeconomic effects of the dual-expected monetary policy under the multi-index evaluation system were the most significant.Policy authorities prefer dual expectations management.(3)Under different policy objectives,the monetary policy quantitative and price-based instruments have different advantages in regulation,any independent instrument of quantitative or price-based is not a“dominant”choice for macroeconomic regulation.Policy authorities should consider the effects of different expectation shocks and expectation combination shocks,differentiated use quantitative and price-based instruments,rationally guide behavior decisions,and avoid“expectation misallocation”between different shocks.