我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金可持续性研究——基于新冠肺炎疫情冲击的影响

Research on the Sustainability of Basic Endowment Insurance Fund for Urban Workers in China:Based on the Impact of the COVID-19

本文针对新冠肺炎疫情对我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金所产生的实际影响,对基金精算平衡模型中的相关参数进行了估计与假设,进而对疫情冲击下我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金的可持续性进行预测与评估。研究发现:受新冠肺炎疫情冲击以及相关政策的影响,2020年我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金当期收入大幅减少,收不抵支,当期结余为负;在延迟退休政策如期执行的前提下,基金收入增长率受政策影响呈周期性波动,整体增速呈放缓态势;随着疫情后相关政策的效应显现和经济复苏,2022年后基金当期收入缺口整体呈缩小趋势。因此,建议增强基金自平衡能力,合理调节退休年龄,强化精算平衡,加力提效积极财政政策,应对新冠肺炎疫情所带来的负面冲击,提升我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金的可持续性。

In view of the actual impact of COVID-19 on China's urban workers'basic pension fund,this paper estimated and assumed the relevant parameters in the fund actuarial equilibrium model,then predicted and evaluated the sustainability of China's urban workers'basic pension fund under the impact of the epidemic.The study found that due to the impact of COVID-19 and relevant policies,the current income of China's basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers will be significantly reduced in 2020,with the income not covering the expenditure and the current balance being negative;if the retirement delay policy is implemented as scheduled,the growth rate of fund income fluctuates periodically under the influence of the policy,the overall growth rate slows down;with the economic recovery after COVID-19 and the deepening of relevant policies,the current income gap of the fund after 2022 show an overall decreasing trend.Therefore,it is suggested to deal with the negative impact of COVID-19 and improve the sustainability of China's basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers by strengthening the self-balancing ability of the fund,reasonably adjusting the retirement age,strengthening actuarial balance,enhancing efficiency,and promoting positive fiscal policies.