中国劳动力流动对家庭贫困影响的内在机理与效应研究--基于面板Logit模型与随机效应模型的实证研究

Research on the Internal Mechanism and Effect of the Influence of Labor Mobility on Family Poverty in China--Empirical Research Based on a Panel Data Logit Model and a Random Effect Model

在对劳动力流动对贫困内在影响机理考察的基础上,利用2014年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,一方面采用面板Logit模型针对不同地区劳动力流动对微观家庭贫困影响进行量化研究,另一方面利用面板随机效应模型实证研究全国和分地区的劳动力流动对家庭年人均收入的影响,并进行分家庭和分地区的动态比较研究。实证结果表明,存在劳动力流动情形的家庭可以显著地降低贫困发生率,而且劳动力外流比例越高,家庭人均收入水平就越高,进而越不容易陷入贫困。进一步的分地区研究发现,欠发达地区劳动力流动的边际减贫效应要优于发达地区。除此之外,家庭特征与户主个体特征对缓解家庭贫困均有不同程度的影响。相比2014年,2018年不同收入区间家庭数量分布发生了显著的结构性变化,极端低收入家庭数量大幅减少,家庭人均收入获得普遍性增长,但地区间人均收入差距进一步扩大。

Based on the investigation of the internal mechanism of the influence of labor mobility on poverty,this paper uses the data of the 2014 and 2018 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) to quantify the influence of labor mobility on micro-family poverty in different regions by using a panel data logit model.On the other hand,the paper employs a panel random effect model to empirically study the impact of national and regional labor mobility on families’ annual per capita income,and conducts a dynamic comparative study of different families and different regions.Empirical results show that families with labor mobility can significantly reduce the incidence of poverty,and the higher the proportion of labor outflow is,the larger per capita income the family has,and thus the less likely it is to fall into poverty.Further regional studies find that the marginal poverty reduction effect of labor mobility in undeveloped regions is greater than that in developed regions.In addition,family characteristics and individual characteristics of the head of household have different effects on alleviating family poverty.Compared with 2014,there were significant structural changes in the distribution of the number of households in different income ranges in 2018.The number of extremely low-income households decreased significantly,and the per capita income of the household generally increased,but the per capita income gap between regions further widened.